MLS Cup Preview

By: NathanHJ | November 21st, 2009

Galaxy vs. RSL

The thought of writing this post after the opening day game against DC United never entered my head. That was a slightly improved version of the meltdown season of 2008 – defensive breakdowns, not much stability in the middle and an attack that put two in the back of the net, but looked frustrating doing it. In addition, DC United showcased a rookie pick-up on the left named Chris Pontius who scored a cracking goal over Josh Saunders. The Bruce Arena makeover seemed very much a work in progress.

But a funny thing happened after that opening day 2-2 tie. The Galaxy only lost one of their next 11 games. Not those weren’t trying times (or really tying times). There was an embarrassing 3-2 lose to Colorado at home with a truly ass-tastic display from all parts of the defense. And there were five ties before the first win, a 1-0 home win over a clearly self-destructing Red Bull team. It wasn’t until the 16th game of the season that the Galaxy won two games in a row (when the put together four straight). The team that hit the halfway mark at 2-3-10, then went 10-3-2 for the second half. Grabbed the number one seed in the West on tie-breakers and then dispatched Chivas and Houston in three hard-fought games. Welcome to Seattle, LA Galaxy!

I don’t think anyone predicted that this team would have made it this far at the beginning of the season. I sure didn’t. I thought that if the team could stop the bleeding in the back and develop a solid midfield they could be competitive and earn back the respectability that had been so spectacularly squandered from 2006 to 2008.

But here we are, looking to take home the third MLS Cup trophy in six tries. There is no question that this drive was built on defense. Arena’s first, second, and third priorities were to cut the number of goals surrendered from a league record of 62 to something more tolerable. Utilizing a philosophy of team defense, building a new backline that now includes two MLS Rookies of the Year (sorry Mr. Pontius), and picking up Keeper of the Year contender Donovan Ricketts, the Galaxy cut the number of goals allowed in half from the year before.

Additionally, the midfield is vastly improved, especially in the defensive and holding positions, giving David Beckham the cover to roam the middle and find the game, often slotting the killer pass home to Landon Donovan.

Finally, the partnership between the two biggest players in the league has finally blossomed, giving the Galaxy an unpredictability that keeps all opponents off balance and forces them to adjust to the Galaxy.

These factors, combined with some luck, and the kind of coaching that brings steady improvement to a team from opening day to season’s close, turned the Galaxy into a team that is now seen as the favorite over Real Salt Lake in tomorrow’s championship clash.

I’m not so sure, myself. Not that the team can’t beat RSL. But they haven’t yet this year, tying them 2-2 at home and losing 2-0 at Rio Tinto. And this team gives the Galaxy some match-up fits with its combination of tenacity and savvy in the midfield and unbridled speed up top all in front of a defense that hasn’t gotten its due all season. RSL is not to be underestimated, especially since they will use their underdog status to motivate them against the Galaxy’s star power.

Here’s a quick look at the positional match-ups.

Keepers: Donovan Ricketts vs. Nick Rimando
Nick Rimando reminded everyone why Chris Seitz was never able to take the number one spot in Sandy in last week’s game against Chicago. He stoned three penalty shots and carried RSL into MLS Cup on his back. Donovan Ricketts game up big 4 times during the Blackout in Carson, giving the Galaxy the space to eventually break the Dynamo defense down. Rimando can sometimes be caught out of position, but Ricketts can sometimes be a little cavalier in protecting the ball. I give the edge to Ricketts based on his reaction saves.

Backline: Todd Dunivant – Gregg Berhalter – Omar Gonzalez – Sean Franklin vs. Robbie Russell – Nat Borchers – Jamison Olave – Chris Wingert
I’ve been a fan of Olave since he joined the league and Nat Borchers is one of the mose underrated backs in MLS. Robbie Russell, when healthy, gives a completely different look at left back, combining strength and quickness in a position usually reserved for speedy flankers. Wingert just keeps giving one steady performance after another. They will be challenged by Donovan’s ability to roam free and find the seams in a defense that isn’t as creative as it should be.

The Galaxy line up their two rookies of the year and can add respectable offense from Franklin and Dunivant on the flanks. The Galaxy backline isn’t as quick as RSL’s but it has incomparable leadership and a season’s worth of achievement at home and away. It’s only given up more than two goals twice in 33 games. They will be challenged by the pure speed of Robbie Findley and Yura Movsissyan and the craftiness of Fabian Espindola. The respective match-up challenges facing the backlines make this one a push.

Midfield: Donovan – Dema Kovalenko – Beckham – Chris Klein/Chris Birchall vs. Andy Williams – Javier Morales – Kyle Beckerman – Will Johnson
On paper this is a no-brainer. Donovan and Beckham in the same midfield makes this one of the most dangerous units in MLS. A killer instinct in defensive midfield and a veteran presence on the right bring stability and strength. But the RSL midfield matches up just as well as the Dynamo did last week. Kyle Beckerman and Will Johnson provide tireless effort in the middle and younger legs than Kovalenko’s. Javier Morales provides the creativity that a true number 10 is expected to bring to the table. And Andy Williams bring veteran craftiness and a deft passing touch to stich together a unit that can dominate possession for long stretches.

To be successful, the Galaxy need to neutralize Morales, forcing him into bad decisions, while marginalizing Williams. That will force Beckerman to play farther forward and open space in the final third that Beckham and Donovan can exploit to open the game up. If Beckham and Donovan can’t shake the intense attention that Beckerman and Johnson will bring to bear against them, then the Galaxy attack will sputter and force the defense to win the game. If Donovan and Beckham play like they are capable of, then the Galaxy will gain the edge in possession and in the game.

Forwards: Edson Buddle – Mike Magee vs. Espindola/Movsisyan – Findley
If Buddle was having a 2008 season and if Magee had shown more consistency in his creativity, then this match up would be more even. But as it stands, both Findley and Movsisyan have been remarkably consistent over the course of the season, with Findley coming close to the Golden Boot. The RSL duo are exceptionally fast and have shown a nose for goal. They aren’t necessarily going to make something from nothing, but if you give them anything they will pounce, as seen by their fine goal against Columbus at Rio Tinto in the first game in the initial playoff series. Espindola is more creative than either and can bring a different dimension to the attack, forcing defenses to adjust to a different style of play.

Edson Buddle has been better over the last two games, finding more of the game and doing a better job distributing the ball, though he continues to try to do too much by himself when he would be better served by making the quick outlet pass. Magee has continued to have a frustrating season, providing not much most of the time, especially when deployed on the left midfield. The advantage is clearly with RSL here, but the Galaxy attack rests more upon a Beckham-Donovan connection than upon getting the ball directly to the front-runners and as such, will rely upon the superstars to create and the strikers to finish.

Real Salt Lake will win if…
Their midfield and backline can neutralize Donovan and Beckham and can find Findley and Movsisyan in places where they can use their speed to burn the slower Galaxy backline.

Los Angeles Galaxy will win if…
Landon Donovan and David Beckham can connect and create, putting RSL on their heels and opening space for the strikers. The defense will have to be dominant in the air and cover for each other in the face of the RSL speesters.

Prediction: Galaxy 2 – RSL 1

What do you all think? Who’s going to win? What are the keys to victory? What must the Galaxy do to stop RSL?

Landon Donovan’s Goal of the Year included in this compilation of the top 10 goals of 2009.