Galaxy vs. Chivas Playoff 2nd Leg Preview

By: NathanHJ | November 8th, 2009

Donovan-Berhalter-Gonzalez post fire game - October 2, 2009
First off, I apologize to everyone for not being able to get a post-game analysis together for last week. It was one of those times when life bitch-slapped my futbol blogging time. In the future, I will, at a minimum, create posts where you all can share your own reactions and analyses, even if I can’t start your comments off with a comprehensive review from my perspective.

So here we sit, anticipating the second leg of the first plyoff series the Galaxy has been in since 2005, against SuperClasico rival Chivas USA. And i have to say that the way the first game was played offers precious little in the way of predicting what will happen in the second.

Yes, the teams put a combined four goals up on the score board, which seems like an offensive-minded game and certainly upended my own predicted series aggregate score of 2-1 Galaxy. But those four goals all came from horrendous defensive miscues, including a few bone fide bonehead plays. Those were atypical of both teams which have notched 12 shutouts each this season and featured stifling goals-against averages.

Yes, Landon Donovan and David Beckham played in their first playoff game together and played adequately. But neither one of them put their stamp on the game and were, for the most part, marked out of having an impact. Donovan’s miscommunication in the midfield led to the first Chivas goal, and Beckham spent too much time too deep in his end of the field to spark the kinds of quick-passing attacks that have led to many Galaxy goals over the season.

And, yes Zach Thornton is MLS Keeper of the Year, but his defense did him no favors last week.

So where do we sit, hours before the deciding game? Here’s the breakdown:

Keepers: Still even. Both keepers were mugged by their own defenders on the four goals and both came up with difficult saves to keep their teams level. Going into today there’s no reason to expect that either one of them have had a dip in form. If anything Donovan Ricketts might be motivated to show-up Thornton for getting an award that Ricketts could have conceivably been offered.

Backline: Last week I said that the Galaxy had the edge here for their mix of veteran leadership and youthful passion, not to mention the apparent skill of one past and one (potentially) present Rookie of the Year. Factor in the relative stability in the defensive corps for the bulk of the season and it seemed like a lock over the ever-shifting back four Chivas has been foreced to field due to injuries and drop in form. I mean, Jonathan Bornstein as a centerback? Really?

But after last week, I’m feeling slight trepidation in the Galaxy’s lock here. It all depends on how Gonzalez responds. Does he raise his intensity and concentration or does he let last week’s performance get inside his head? If he performs with the maturity he’s shown all season, then I think it will be the former. And if that’s the case, I have to go with the Galaxy backline over Chivas and count on defensive slips as the Chivas defenders still figure out how to play with each other.

Midfield: Last week I gave the Galaxy the edge here as well. This week the edge on paper still goes to the Galaxy, but last week’s performance has to be thought of as even at best. The combination of the league’s best passer with its best creative force should have outclassed a Chivas midfield made up of two bruisers and an out-of-form creative engine. Not so much. Apparently putting Chris Lahoud on man-to-man duty on Becks is enough to take him out of a game. And, though Donovan showed sparks of creativity, he didn’t deliver the kind of game we saw in the intense game against Chicago at home. I still think the Galaxy midfield can outclass who Preki can put on the field. But they have to play like it or Chivas wins.

Forwards: And here’s why the Galaxy mdfield has to perform: Chivas’ attack. It’s true that Chivas is the only team in the league that has failed to score at least three goals in a game this season. But their attack has suffered all season long from injuries and inconsistent personnel availability. Now that Maykel Galindo has shown his fitness and Justin Braun has shown his ability to partner well with whomever else he’s working with, the Chivas attack is at its most potent. Preki can also bring offense off the bench in the form of Lillingston, Lahoud, Padilla, and Flores.

The Galaxy, on the other hand, are going with the spark-less duo of Mike Magee and Edson Buddle. On paper these two should click. In practice, they just don’t. Last game was filled with way to man Buddle give-aways, runs not anticipated by Magee, and collective lack of concentration. Magee’s creativity took a break from this game and he left Donovan to do most of the work here. The bench of Kirovski, Gordon, and Jordan do not inspire much confidence either. In fact, the biggest offensive sparks off the bench are likely to be Eddie Lewis and Chris Klein. Who are both in the midfield.

Outlook for today: The Galaxy will gain a bit of momentum by having the majority of the crowd behind them, but Chivas fan will be out in numbers for this match-up, taking away some of the home-crowd edge. The Galaxy can take comfort from knowing that it was their own mistakes that cost the win last week, not getting outplayed. But so can Chivas.

However, the Galaxy can look directly at its two best players and see that if they play the kind of game of which they are both supremely capable, then they can dominate Chivas for most of the game.

The biggest question mark for the afternoon is how the increasingly confident Chivas attackers will fare against a Galaxy defense that relies more on guile and strong communications than speed and technical ability to shutdown opponents. If the Galaxy can recapture the defensive form that got them here in the first place, then their midfield should, in the end, create enough to defeat the Goats and put the Galaxy into the conference final. If the defense can’t handle the Chivas attack, it will be a long and disappointing afternoon for the team and fans.

Prediction: Galaxy 2-1, 4-3 on aggregate.

What others are saying:

Three stories from MLSNet here, here, and here.
Luis Bueno at SI.com
Grahame Jones at the LA Times
Andrea Canales at Goal.com
Luis Bueno at the Press-Enterprise
The AP at CBSSports (where they inexplicably say the game will be played at the Rose Bowl).
Ives Galarcep at ESPNSoccernet
Angel Magana at LAist.com
LA Soccer News
Phil Collin at the Whittier Daily News
Mark Rogondino’s View From The Booth